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Credible Intervals vs Confidence Intervals, Why Would We Ever Use the Latter?
Say we want to know the value of some parameter . The definition of a credible interval is easy to parse. Your 90% credible interval is the interval , after you observe evidence , just in case: This just says that the probability that the value of is in is 0.9. Simple enough. The definition… Read more
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Think on Purpose
Brains are for making choices, so you would think that the animal with the most brains spends a lot of time thinking about what choices to make. It doesn’t seem that way to me though. It seems like a lot (most?) people spend most of their time thinking about anything but what choices to make.… Read more
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Bayesian Self-Trust and The Litany of Good
Upon learning something new, I may decide to act differently.Upon learning something new,I may decide to act just the same.No force compels me to alter my plans but my own judgment.I need not fear that which can only improve my choices. The Litany of Good. There is a theorem due to I. J. Good which… Read more
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Are We Right about How Effective Mockery Is?
I did a second survey that fixed some of the flaws of the first survey. The results from the second survey significantly color the interpretation of the results from the first survey given in the first “Conclusion and Discussion” section. Please continue reading past the section titled “Second Survey” to get a full picture of… Read more
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Assertion as a Game
There has been a lot of ink spilled over what assertion is, what its norms are, how it relates to belief, and how in turn belief relates to credence. Here I just want to point out that if it is a lot more advantageous to have turned out to be right about an assertion than… Read more
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Meta-Blaspheme for the Blasphemers
In the current climate, I cannot recommend to someone who is unmoved to believe things because of social pressure that they try to become academics or public figures, especially not if they are also the sort of person who is instinctually open and honest about what they believe. A lot of the most intelligent, interesting,… Read more
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A Coincidence of Heuristic Arguments for Bayesian Epistemology
A lot of the arguments that initially convinced me that something like Bayesian epistemology is right turned out to be heuristic arguments that I now find a lot less convincing. I am still pretty convinced nonetheless. In this post I will talk about two of them, point out how they were convincing in broad strokes… Read more
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A Push for More Age of Em Style Futurism
Robin Hanson’s The Age of Em: Work, Love, and Life when Robots Rule the Earth gives us an impressively realistic and unconventional picture of how the future might be different in the domains we most care about. I think there should be more books like it. Many people have been struck by the realism of… Read more
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Excusing a Failure to Adjust
Here is a handle for a mistake I make all the time that works really well for me… that is the handle works really well for me. I make this mistake fairly often, but of course I notice it in other people more often. Imagine that your credence in a belief is represented by a… Read more
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Empathetic vs Intrinsic Oof
Some people are empathetic oofers, and some people are intrinsic oofers. (“Oof” as in the sound one makes when told a story about someone’s unintentional, but unfortunate gaffe.) Empathetic oofers, like myself, only experience awkwardness if they think someone else around them might be feeling awkward. Intrinsic oofers can feel awkward, or cringe, or other… Read more
Figuring Figuring 